Football betting is the rise of online sportsbooks. While picking winning teams takes knowledge and research, having the right strategy helps increase your chances of success.
Study team statistics and trends
The most important thing you do is study team stats and trends heading into a game.
- Offensive and defensive rankings – A strong offense or defense tilts the odds.
- Home and away records – Some teams play drastically better at home.
- Injuries – Missing key players often hurts a team’s chances.
- Recent performance – A team on a winning or losing streak is more likely to continue it.
Digging into predictive stats like yardage gained/allowed, points scored/allowed, and turnovers reveals which teams have an edge. Tracking trends over the last 3-5 games helps identify teams trending up or down.
factor in home field advantage
It’s proven that home team’s sensa 69 win more often than the away team in the NFL. The home crowd energy, familiarity with the surroundings, and travel factors for the away team all contribute to this edge. When you’re analyzing a matchup, you should bump up a home team by 2-3 points in your projection. Road games against divisional rivals in intense environments are even tougher for away teams. Don’t assume the betting line has factored in the home field enough. It’s one of the most predictive factors you should include in your analysis.
Have a betting strategy
The best football handicappers have a thoughtful betting strategy they stick to. Here are some tips:
- Bet selectively – Being patient and waiting for the best 3-5 plays means you only bet your strongest edges.
- Have a money management system – Appropriately size your bets based on your edge and bankroll management principles. Don’t overextend.
- Record bets/results – Tracking your record over time lets you analyze which bets are the most +EV for you.
- Adjust and improve – Constantly refine your process based on results. Remove biases and seek new advantages.
Execute your strategy consistently according to your systems and models. Stay disciplined when results go against you short term.
Take advantage of line value
One way to boost win rates is by taking full advantage of betting value. If you determine a team has a 60% chance to win, you want to bet them as long as you’re getting +EV odds better than the implied 40% win odds.
Shop for the best line across multiple sportsbooks a few points of difference can provide a significant long-term boost to your bottom line. Maximizing value opportunities on the teams you determine have the predictive edge is key to football betting success. Those extra percentage points add up.
Trust your analysis
Once you’ve handicapped the games thoroughly and made your bets, have confidence in your analysis. Don’t let the ups and downs during the game cause you to doubt your process. Staying disciplined is challenging but critical. Last-minute line movements or emotional hedge bets often reduce your edge. Trust you’re handicapping and ride it out. By thoroughly analyzing matchups, having an edge in the betting market, and executing a sound betting strategy, you can put yourself in a position to pick many more winning teams. Do the work and the results will follow.
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